The brand new Texas Tribune debuted with banner headline about the Tribune/University of Texas poll. Gov. Rick Perry leads Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 12 points. The news for Democrats is more muddled — and explained badly by the pollsters.
I don’t really know what to make of this poll. It is based upon a sample of 800 registered voters. No information is given us about how likely these registered voters are to vote. Polls without tight screens can be wildly off the mark.
There is a quote from UT pollster Jim Henson that is unjustified by any of the reported findings:
“The problem with the Democrats is not that nobody’s looking at them,” said pollster Jim Henson, who runs the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin and teaches there. “It’s that the candidate’s they’re showing, nobody likes.”
While it’s true that an unnamed Democrat fares better in the poll than the announced candidates, it’s that phrase “nobody likes” that seems to me to be, well, bull. Houston Mayor Bill White won his last two elections with around 90 percent of the vote. Houston’s a big town, and its voters have a huge impact on statewide results. Where’s the “nobody likes” in White’s successes?
Where’s the negatives that would justify such a comment? Isn’t it the case that few Texans know Tom Schieffer or Hank Gilbert? How can you tell me nobody likes them if they don’t know them yet? The truth is, news coverage of Texas politics is so diminished that few people have any idea about the 2010 candidates at any level. This does favor incumbents. I hope the Tribune helps close the statewide political news gap.
Maybe there is information in the poll we haven’t seen yet. Who knows. How about a few more facts and a little less spin?
The truth is, there’s not much news in this poll with regard to the 2010 general election, which is a year away. I hope future polls will include tight screens for likely voters. And I hope the scientific pollsters will refrain from making unjustified, qualitative claims.
If the poll is accurate, it’s bad news for Hutchison. This is a very odd election cycle. It’s almost like the un-election. That’s gives the incumbent governor the advantage. Soon we’ll be in the holidays. Then the filing deadline in January. Then the primary in March. There is not much time for Hutchison to find enough tea-bag free voters to overcome Perry’s lead.
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About Glenn W. Smith
Glenn W. Smith has spent the past 30 years in journalism and politics, where he’s made a name for himself as a writer, campaign manager, activist, think tank analyst and, as Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas says, a “legendary political consultant and all-around good guy.” “There’s no one like him,” says author George Lakoff. CNN commentator Paul Begala says, “He has unmatched experience, a graceful pen (or pixel nowadays) and deep insight into the best and worst of us.” Novelist Sarah Bird speaks of his “lucid and lyrical” prose. And, she says, he’s fun. Huffington Post founder Arianna Huffington says Glenn writes with “grace and abundant humor” and “uses his colorful experiences in Texas to enlighten us all.”
Smith led Ann Richards’ successful 1990 campaign for Governor of Texas. He worked for former Texas Lt. Gov. Bill Hobby and U.S. Senator Lloyd Bentsen. Earlier, Smith was a political reporter for the Houston Chronicle and the Houston Post. He’s coordinated national campaigns for groups such as MoveOn.org. In 2004, he authored the highly acclaimed book, The Politics of Deceit: Saving Freedom and Democracy from Extinction. He also wrote Unfit Commander, a book that detailed George W. Bush’s mysterious disappearance from military service.
In 2004, Smith was featured in the film, Bush’s Brain, a documentary about Karl Rove. Smith provided commentary on Rove’s role as then-President Bush’s senior advisor. He has made numerous media appearances with Chris Mathews on Hardball, Joe Scarborough, Brit Hume, and many others. He writes a regularly for top national web sites, including FireDogLake and Huffington Post.
As a senior fellow at George Lakoff’s prestigious Rockridge Institute in Berkeley he studied, wrote and taught on the power of metaphor and narrative in political communications. He also lectured on religion and politics at the Starr King School for Ministry in Berkeley. As a sponsor and organizer, he has pulled together numerous national events with progressive religious leaders. He also organized a celebration of Dr. Martin Luther King at Riverside Church in New York City as well as “Freedom and Faith” bus tours, which was a nationwide campaign for social justice and progressive values.
Smith’s play, Double Play, which explored American Western myths and legends, was held over to sold-out audiences. He’s even written and performed songs in the Americana tradition, such as his best-known song, “Helping Marty Robbins,” a tribute to his hometown, Houston.
Most recently, Smith is the creator of DogCanyon, a political and cultural web site covering state, national and global issues from a Texas perspective. DogCanyon is an exhilarating and unique site that gets the connections between politics and culture and explores both the personal side of politics and the ups, down, craziness and beauty of “life its ownself,” as humorist Dan Jenkins would say. DogCanyon offers heartfelt personal essays, hard-hitting political analysis, and, most importantly, laughs.
As Paul Begala said, Smith writes in “the finest, firmest, fearless tradition of Texas essayists like Molly Ivins.”
I’m very much looking forward to hearing how they drew their internet sample, too. Especially when it comes to Democrats. Calling Democratic primary voters in Texas is hard enough. Getting a sample that is representative in terms of ethnicity, language and socioeconomic status must be quite a challenge.
Glenn,
The questions and answers were already posted online: http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-txtrib-day1.pdf
It looks like those who got asked about the Republican primary are registered voters who said they would “probably” or “definitely” vote in the Republican Primary. And the same type of thing for the Democratic question.
Bill White’s not in the Governor’s race, so I don’t think he is applicable there. And quite frankly, you can dislike someone you haven’t heard of – you dislike the fact you haven’t heard of them.
There doesn’t seem much of a problem for White in the Senate race, either, as he is tied for first. That’s why I think Henson was referring to the Gubernatorial race.
Good points. But the problem remains the quote — whether or not Jim was referring to White or other Senate candidates. It is, at the least, misleading when given generally and without qualification. The verbal screen is just not adequate, either. Let me put it this way, no campaign would base its decision on a loose screen like that. Methodologies aside, pollsters, who like to shine themselves up with a neutral, social-scientist gloss, ought not to make such clearly subjective and unjustified statements.
In a certain sense, I’m projecting a bit of my overall distrust and disgust even for public polling. We have internet polls, auto-call polls, poll-vaulting polls, and all of them get reported as if their methodologies were always sound, and they are not. The media takes polling as determinative too often, so it can be self-fulfilling.
I agree. The analysis of the Democrats was embarrassing and lazy.
I have talked about internet polls with several political pollsters, all of whom are able to stay in business because they’re almost always right. None of them thought internet polls were reliable.
These pollsters are all concerned that cell phones and caller ID are undermining the credibility of their own polls. They’re also acutely aware that these factors have raised the cost of polling (more calls and larger samples required).
If there were a cheaper and easier way to achieve the same level of accuracy, I’m certain they would do it. That none of them are turning to internet polls tells me all I need to know.
I believe I read this morning that the sample was drawn from a list of voters who registered to serve as respondents in surveys for compensation like travel points and tee shirts. you know, ordinary, everyday Americans.
The same folk who get the letter that says “you have already won — just claim your prize.”
For all who may not know, The Waco Tribune Herald has been bought from Cox Newspapers by ultra reactionary Waco businessman & arch-Republican Clifton Robinson. His intention is to do all he can to see that Congressman Chet Edwards is defeated in the next election.
The citizens of Central Texas who read Waco Tribune Herald need–in the form of letters to the editor, op-eds, etc.,– all the help they can get to offset the innuendo, mis-information, glittering generalities, convoluted logic and tainted editorialization that will come from Clifton and his son on the news pages as well opinion pages. This is not the fault of the Editor, Carlos Sanchez, who has been a very good editor prior to the Robinson takeover. John Young, an excellent editorial writer & political columnist, has also left the Waco Trib.
Chet Edwards, who has consistently defeated the Tom Delay “gerrymandering” efforts election after election with the endorsement of the Waco Trib, will no longer have that endorsement. In other words, Chet will need all the help he can get to overcome the Robinson’s if we want to keep him in congress.