The brand new Texas Tribune debuted with banner headline about the Tribune/University of Texas poll. Gov. Rick Perry leads Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 12 points. The news for Democrats is more muddled — and explained badly by the pollsters.
I don’t really know what to make of this poll. It is based upon a sample of 800 registered voters. No information is given us about how likely these registered voters are to vote. Polls without tight screens can be wildly off the mark.
There is a quote from UT pollster Jim Henson that is unjustified by any of the reported findings:
“The problem with the Democrats is not that nobody’s looking at them,” said pollster Jim Henson, who runs the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin and teaches there. “It’s that the candidate’s they’re showing, nobody likes.”
While it’s true that an unnamed Democrat fares better in the poll than the announced candidates, it’s that phrase “nobody likes” that seems to me to be, well, bull. Houston Mayor Bill White won his last two elections with around 90 percent of the vote. Houston’s a big town, and its voters have a huge impact on statewide results. Where’s the “nobody likes” in White’s successes?
Where’s the negatives that would justify such a comment? Isn’t it the case that few Texans know Tom Schieffer or Hank Gilbert? How can you tell me nobody likes them if they don’t know them yet? The truth is, news coverage of Texas politics is so diminished that few people have any idea about the 2010 candidates at any level. This does favor incumbents. I hope the Tribune helps close the statewide political news gap.
Maybe there is information in the poll we haven’t seen yet. Who knows. How about a few more facts and a little less spin?
The truth is, there’s not much news in this poll with regard to the 2010 general election, which is a year away. I hope future polls will include tight screens for likely voters. And I hope the scientific pollsters will refrain from making unjustified, qualitative claims.
If the poll is accurate, it’s bad news for Hutchison. This is a very odd election cycle. It’s almost like the un-election. That’s gives the incumbent governor the advantage. Soon we’ll be in the holidays. Then the filing deadline in January. Then the primary in March. There is not much time for Hutchison to find enough tea-bag free voters to overcome Perry’s lead.